CryptCraze takes a look at on-chain indicators for Bitcoin (Bitcoin (BTC)), more specifically the Market Value To Realized Value (MVRV) and Net Unrealized Profit Loss (NUPL)

MVRV Z-score

MVRV is defined as the ratio between the market and realized capitalization levels. Values stronger than one specify that the market cap is larger than the realized cap.  The MVRV Z-score uses a standard deviation in order to normalize the prices.

On Jan 24, the indicator captured a price of 0.85. The low is the first time that the indicator has fallen within the 0.80 -1.20 field afterward Sept 2020, when the current bullish cycle was scarcely beginning. Historically, prices over this field have been associated with bullish trends, at the same time those below have transpired during bear markets.

Therefore, in order for the cycle to carry on intact, MVRV has to rebound and move outside of this range. A crack-up below 0.8 would barelyify that the protracted-term trend has turned bearish.


Chart By Glassnode


NUPL is an indicator that measures the total amount of profit or loss for investors. A reading below 0 means that the market is in aggregate loss, during the time one atop 0 indicates that the market is in aggregate profit.

During the previous market cycle, prices atop 0.75 (blue) have been linked with tops. Conversely, those below 0.25 (red) with bottoms.

In the beginning of Jan, NUPL fell below the 0.5 region. This was a bearish change, afterward it was the second time it fell below this level, after that of July 2021 (black circle).

In the previous market cycles, NUPL fell below the 0.5 level only back when after previously moving atop it whilst the trend was bullish. Therefore, the second decrease below 0.5 market the end of the bullish trend (red circle).

After all, it is worth noting that the current cycle is the first one in that NUPL did not increase at all over 0.75. Therefore, if the current bullish cycle has completed, it would mark the only time in which NUPL has not crossed over 0.75. Assuming that not, it would mark the first time which the indicator fell below 0.5 twice before recovering the line.

Therefore, the ensuing change is significant in order to determine the future trend. Another recover of the 0.5 line would go a protracted way in suggesting which the trend is bullish, when a decrease below 0.25 would all but logicalate which the trend has become bearish.


Chart By Glassnode

For CryptCraze’s latest Bitcoin (Bitcoin (BTC)) analysis, click here

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