The St. Louis branch of the Federal Reserve bank has published a report seeking to examine the long-term prospects of BTC as an investment. The paper is highly critical of bullish outlooks for bitcoin, asserting that a “flood” of altcoins will deflate the price of all cryptocurrencies relative to fiat currencies over time.
Economic Research Arm of St. Louis Federal Reserve Assesses Bitcoin’s Prospects
The St. Louis Federal Reserve has published a paper that seeks to assess the prospects of bitcoin as a long-term investment.
According to the paper, the bullish argument for bitcoin core is that it will appreciate “indefinitely” due to its “capped supply and an ever-growing demand.” The bearish case for bitcoin, the St. Louis fed asserts, is that “Bitcoin’s price will fall to zero, as it’s an intrinsically worthless asset.”
Ultimately, the paper predicts that the future price action for bitcoin is likely to remain bounded between the aforementioned “extremes.”
St. Louis Fed Argues ‘Ever-Expanding’ Altcoin Supply Will Diminish Bitcoin Prices
The St. Louis Federal Reserve describes the bitcoin bull scenario as “too optimistic,” emphasizing the expectation that the “ever-expanding supply of alternative cryptocurrencies” will drive down the price of BTC relative to fiat currencies.
The paper asserts that the bullish outlook for bitcoin “assumes that the nominal exchange rate between bitcoin vis-a-vis other cryptocurrencies will adjust in proportion to their relative supplies,” adding that “Bitcoin is expected to appreciate relative to its competitors or, equivalently, its market capitalization share will stay constant over time.”
St. Louis Federal Reserve Claims Bitcoin ‘Has No Fundamental Value’
The bearish outlook is predicated on the assertion that “Bitcoin has no fundamental value” and that the market will “recognize this fact” sooner or later.
While appearing to make concessions for the possibility that bitcoin will not crash down to zero, the paper notes that “one can accept that bitcoin trades above its fundamental value without claiming that its fundamental value is zero,” adding that “many securities trade above what might be considered their fundamental value.”
In concluding, the paper asserts that the price dynamic of an unbacked asset will likely produce significant volatility and is “inherently unforecastable.” While the St. Louis Federal Reserves adds that the price of bitcoin is “not likely” to fall to zero, the paper repeatedly emphasizes the authors’ expectation that the proliferation of altcoins “is likely to place significant downward pressure on the purchasing power of all cryptocurrencies, including bitcoin.”
What is your response to the St. Louis Federal Reserve’s predictions regarding the long-term outlook for bitcoin? Share your thoughts in the comments section below!
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